LONG-TERM DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Several events in the past year have raised significant challenges for our community. First, we are experiencing the first sustained, substantial economic slowdown in over a decade. Second, a series of state and federal policy changes have had major impacts on some key social services. Third, the events of September 11 and the lingering threat of terrorism have brought a whole new set of issues to the forefront. This overview is intended to provide information about what is happening in all sectors of the community - public, private, non-profit and faith based.

HIGHLIGHTS OF NEW FINDINGS:

Updated Unemployment Rates
Motorola Layoffs
Angelos Angelou predicts a bright future for Austin
National Estimate of Job Losses after the September 11th attacks
New United Way - First Call For Help Data
Increase in Demand at Crisis Assistance Pantry
Falling Occupancy Rates
Hospitals Operating at Maximum Capacity
City's Health Centers see Increases
Any Baby Can out of Crisis Assistance Funds
Closure of Substance Abuse Treatment Site
Referrals to Juvenile Probation Decrease
Crime Rates Increase

---

ECONOMY:

Toward the end of the year 2000, our community began experiencing a significant economic slowdown.

• Although job creation has exceeded layoffs, Angelou Economic Advisors reports 23,000 layoffs in 2001. The Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce reports that more than 16,000 of those layoffs were in the high tech industry. Closures and reductions in the high tech industry continue to have a ripple effect across all segments of the economy. For the first time in many years, we have seen unemployment in Travis County climb steadily, from just 1.7% in December of 2000 to 4.7% in December of 2001. Further layoffs and rising unemployment resulting from the ongoing economic slowdown will continue to have lasting impacts on individual residents, families, and the community overall. (January 2002 update due to be released February 22, 2002.)
  
• Despite the downturn in the economy and the rise in unemployment, there is some positive news. Some companies, such as Dupont Photomask and UT Austin Biomedical Engineering Dept. are continuing to create new jobs. In September 2001 there were 9,500 more jobs in the community than in September 2000. Similarly, the number of patents issued (January - October 2001) in Austin are up from the same time last year. A national poll conducted in mid-October by the Gallup Organization found that although people have a poor outlook on the national economy they are feeling positive about the local economy where they live, the businesses where they work and their own financial situation.
  
• Of the major employment sectors, manufacturing is the only sector that lost jobs last year, a decline of almost 6 percent. The manufacturing sector accounts for 12 percent of Austin's total jobs, half of which are connected to two large industries - Computers & Peripherals and Semiconductors & Electronics - that have been hit hard by the national economic downturn. Austin's manufacturing sector in 2000 accounted for the highest average annual wage per worker ($64,376) of all major employment sectors. The loss in manufacturing jobs means that Austin is losing higher-than-average paying jobs.
  
• For every 100 people who lose their jobs, the number of people uninsured grows by 85. Of the 20,700 people in Travis County who have been laid off since the beginning of 2001, approximately 17,595 people are also losing health insurance benefits.
  
• Motorola announced on January 10th that they will be closing an Austin semiconductor plant, costing 200 jobs. On February 7th, Motorola announced that it cut about 670 more workers in Austin. They have also begun to cut 2,000 non-manufacturing jobs worldwide.
  
• The Comptroller's Leading Economic Indicator Index underscores the slowdown. At present, eight of ten economic indicators have worsened over the past year (June '00 to June '01), including the three that are most predictive of the future economy-the consumer confidence index, the help-wanted index, and initial claims for unemployment compensation. On a more positive note, housing permits are up, most likely a result of the lower interest rates.
  
• In the last decade, the cost of living in the community has risen significantly. The recent downturn in the economy has resulted in some residents being caught in the sudden layoffs while still bearing the economic brunt of the high cost of living in the area. As the economy has slowed, the cost of living index continued to rise, up 2.35% from October 2000 to October 2001.
  
• Of the top ten occupational categories in the Austin-San Marcos Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), 28.8% of those jobs (186,360) have a median hourly wage of less than $10/hour. Information recently released by the Center for Public Policy Priorities indicates that a single adult with no children needs to earn at least $10/hour in order to secure basic necessities. However, a single parent with one child needs to earn a minimum of $17/hour to support a family ($33,819/yr). For a family of two parents and two children, the Austin-San Marcos MSA is the most expensive metropolitan area in the state in which to live.
  
• There are signs that the economy is beginning to take a positive turn. The University of Michigan's national consumer confidence index rose to 88.8 in December from the index's recent low of 81.8 in September. The index is down sharply from a peak of 112 in early 2000, but over the past three months is close to where it was before September 11th (91.5).
  
• Angelos Angelou, a local economist, predicts an increase of 45,000 new jobs in Austin in the next two years, but he also says to expect about 5,000 more layoffs before seeing a turn-around. Angelou also predicts that the economy will turn the corner in the second quarter of 2002, and rebound slowly during the third quarter.
  

Top Of Page

POLICY CHANGES:

Although a comprehensive list is not available, following are some selected examples of policy changes that are impacting various sectors of the community.

• Funds for Dislocated Workers. Last year, Work Source spent some $640,000 to address the needs of dislocated workers. However, this year's contract with the Texas Workforce Commission is only $280,000. While it is possible additional funds are available, at this time they are not secured.
  
• Victims of Crime Act (VOCA) Funds. During the VOCA last funding cycle, 8 programs requesting more than $1 million were not funded, despite several programs being previous grantees. Additionally, as a result of policy changes and the expenditure of reserve funds, the Governor's Office announced a 12.5% cut ($435,000 for the ten county region) in VOCA grants for funding year 2003. The Capital Area Planning Council (CAPCO) has decided to close the application process to all but current grantees and ask that they all take a 12.5% across the board cut.
  
• The HUD SuperNOFA process changed this year so that bricks and mortar projects were given priority rather than projects that provided support services. This meant that new single room occupancy (SRO) and transitional housing projects were funded but not case management and support services (such as the Passages Program or the services of Push-Up Foundation).
  

Top Of Page

SEPTEMBER 11 IMPLICATIONS:

• A study released on January 11th predicted that the September 11th attacks will result in the loss of more than 1.6 million jobs across the country in 2002. Tourism and airline sectors will be affected the most, although many other industries will also be negatively impacted.
  
• Austin's September sales tax revenue shrank 12.7 percent compared with September 2000, foreboding likely budget cuts, according to the city's finance director. The decrease in tax revenue is attributed to the decline in consumer purchases immediately after the September 11th terrorist attacks. It represents a $1.4 million loss in projected City of Austin revenue. It was also the largest month-to-month drop among major cities in the state and the largest in Austin since at least 1988.
  
• Anxiety has increased. The daily call volume at the Seton emergency call center was up 26% in September and 40% in October compared to the same months last year. Call center staff report that each nurse is fielding at least five calls per day about anthrax, and nurses are reporting that many more people are calling about concerns they may not have called about before September 11th.
  
• Thirteen states and four major cities have detected an increased demand for alcohol and drug treatment since the Sept. 11 attacks, according to a new report released December 10th by the National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse at Columbia University.
  
• According to the National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse at Columbia University, treatment admissions are climbing by 10 to 12 percent nationally. Individuals who have been sober for as long as 24 months are relapsing and being admitted into treatment as well. Sales of street drugs have also increased in New York City since September 11th.
  
• Many reservists and National Guard members who have been called into active military duty are taking pay cuts when they move from their civilian to their military positions. Although Dell and EDS are two local employers who plan to make up the pay difference for employees called to active duty, most employers are not in a financial position to follow suit. This could negatively impact military families left in Austin, possibly putting a further strain on an already overloaded service system.
  
• The Austin Police Department is restructuring in response to the September 11th events, including forming a Homeland Defense Division, expanding Search and Rescue and Explosive Ordinance Disposal (EOD, or Bomb Squad) units, and considering changes to the role of Street Response.
  

Top Of Page

INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY IMPACTS:

• Basic Needs: Job loss can create a domino effect for individuals and families who are on the precipice of self-sufficiency. Job loss can force choices between necessities such as buying food and paying other bills such as rent, utilities and medical care. For families without savings or a financial cushion, a job loss by itself or combined with another emergency, such as a medical need, can have dire consequences such as families being forced onto the streets.
  
• Rising cost of living (up 30% from 1991 to 2001) and growing economic disparity is leading to an increased demand for human services.
  
• Health: The unprecedented number of layoffs experienced in our community in the last year will continue to impact the health of Travis County residents. The likelihood of a continued economic downturn will result in increased demands for comprehensive health services. Unemployment or job loss has been consistently identified as a significant determinant for health and well-being. Job loss has been directly associated with the incidence of diseases such as heart disease, substance abuse disorders, and the onset of serious mental illness. A recent study determined that 30% percent of people who experienced job loss also experienced a serious mental illness. In contrast, only 19% percent of people who maintained steady employment had a serious mental illness. In addition to actual job loss, the perceived or real threat of job loss can increase stress and anxiety. The Austin area has been identified as a part of the country with a high rate of anxiety, depression, and suicide. In fact, a nationwide study conducted by the National Research Corporation found that the Austin area ranked third in the country in the percentage of people reporting depression or anxiety disorders. Similarly, the suicide rate in Travis County from 1989 to 1998 was 12.2 per 100,000. This rate is double the national target of 6.0 suicide deaths per 100,000.

Top Of Page

COMMUNITY IMPACTS:

• Ever-worsening economic scenarios are sending state legislators scrambling to balance the budgets for the coming year, in many cases meaning significant cuts in Medicaid and other health-related services. A federal economic stimulus package passed by the House of Representatives could make a precarious situation even worse, reducing state tax revenue by $15 billion over the next three years, and likely forcing further budget cuts and tax increases on the state level.
  
• Public Sector: The economic slowdown has already had a major impact on state and local government revenue. Sales tax revenue, in particular, is down significantly. Many government entities are contemplating significant budget reductions. For example, the Austin American Statesman reported that the City of Austin is currently contemplating 5% or 12.5% across the board budget reductions, with the exception of police, fire, and emergency response services.
  
• Charitable Giving: A national survey conducted in October 2001 on charitable giving released by Independent Sector provides some idea of what to expect in the area of charitable giving. A big concern is that money that would normally go to local charities is going to New York to support the relief effort from September 11th. The survey results indicate that 73% of respondents expect to continue giving at their regular levels and that contributions to September 11th are above and beyond regular donations. The interpretation is that the impact of September 11th on local fundraising efforts should be short term, not long term. The biggest impact on giving is the economy. One out of ten respondents to the survey indicated that they will stop making charitable contributions as a result of the economic downturn. Another 11% said that they will reduce their giving as a result of the economy. One positive note is that the events of September 11th brought many first time donors to the table. This could have a positive impact over time.
  
  Recent reports indicate that local charities and non-profits are feeling the pinch. For example, both Lifeworks and SafePlace have reported layoffs in recent weeks. Caritas has cut rent and utility assistance because of fewer dollars coming in, and Austin Community Nursery Schools closed one of its schools.
  
• The Push-Up Foundation and Salvation Army's Passages program received HUD SuperNOFA funds last year, but did not this year. The Passages program included childcare for shelter residents and homeless people with children. Passages applied for $776,929 and their current funding ends in May of 2002. Loss of these programs will have a serious impact on Travis County's homeless population and other homeless service providers.
  

Top Of Page

LONG-TERM DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS:

The total population for Travis County (812,280) has increased 41% since 1990. Further complicating the changes our community has experienced in the past year are a number of continuing demographic trends:

People in poverty:

• Currently there are more than 105,000 people in Travis County living in poverty ($17,050 for a family of four) -- approximately 13% of the total population.
  
• Of the 155,718 rural residents of Travis County, approximately 20,000 live in poverty (13%).
  
• It is often the case that individuals who work still require basic needs assistance. People who are working, but still not self-sufficient include those who are: employed at low wage levels, working multiple low wage jobs, or employed part time. Eighty percent of poor children in Texas live in families in which at least one parent works. The Texas Department of Human Services (TDHS) estimates that there are up to 200,000 working poor in Travis County (defined as living at or below 200% of the federal poverty income guideline).
  
• Another indicator of the magnitude of the "working poor" in Travis County is the number of public school students who are considered economically disadvantaged. Students are considered economically disadvantaged when they qualify for free or reduced-price lunches. 33.7% of all students in Travis County Independent School Districts (ISD) qualified during the 2000-2001 school year. Del Valle (63.6%), Manor (57.5%) and Austin (48%) ISDs exceed the county-wide rate. Fifty-four percent of Travis County elementary school students qualified for free or reduced-price lunches.

Race/Ethnicity:

• Travis County is not only larger, but more diverse. The total African-American population has grown 25% since 1990, the Hispanic population 88%, and persons of other races (including mixed races) have increased 126% in the last ten years. The percent of minority students in Travis County ISDs increased from 47% in the 96-97 school year to 50.5% in 00-01. Hispanic, African-American, American Indian, and Asian students currently comprise 61.3% of elementary school students in Travis County.

Immigration:

• At least 63,500 Travis County residents were born in a country other than the U.S. (an unknown number of undocumented residents were not counted during the 2000 Census).
  
• Service providers have experienced increases in the number of immigrants (primarily Spanish-speaking) seeking assistance.

Family Structure:

• 22% of Travis County children live in single-parent families. Census 2000 estimates that there are 39,381 single parents in the Austin/San Marcos MSA.

Aging:

• Our community is growing older. By the year 2020, it is estimated that nearly one in five Travis County residents will be age 60 or older, an increase of more than 100% from 2000. In the last 10 years, this portion of the population increased 30%. Individuals age 75 or older are the fastest growing segment of the older adult population and increased 46% in the last 10 years. There are currently 74,762 elderly persons age 60 or older and 24,956 age 75 or older in Travis County.
  

Top Of Page

DEMAND INDICATORS:

Housing, Homelessness, Basic Needs:

• Nationwide, 25 out of 27 large cities surveyed reported an increase in requests for emergency food assistance, climbing an average of 23% in the last year. All cities surveyed (by the U.S. Conference of Mayors) said they expected the trend to continue into the next year.
  
• In a comparison of October 2001 through January 22, 2002 and the same time period of the previous year, United Way's First Call for Help has experienced a 28% increase in the number of callers. People needing help to pay electricity bills increased 113%. In addition, First Call for Help saw a 32% increase in calls for rent assistance, a 97% increase in calls for transitional housing assistance, and an 88% increase in calls for assistance with food.
  
• At First Call for Help, the top five caller needs in FY 2000 - 2001 were: 1)Utility Bill Assistance; 2)Rent Assistance; 3)Food Pantry; 4)Homeless Shelter; and 5)Low-cost/ Affordable Housing.
  
• The Capital Area Food Bank had 170 first-time requests for help in October of 2001, compared with 20 first-time requests in October of 2000.
  
• The Crisis Assistance Pantry, (which is a collaboration among The Arc of the Capital Area, Austin/Travis Co.MHMR, Ebenezer Baptist Church, and Any Baby Can) has also seen a tremendous increase in demand. In February of 2001, they served 381 unduplicated people with crisis assistance (e.g. food, clothing, diapers), in September they served 573, and in December they served 994- an increase of 260% over the course of ten months. These numbers are not expected to decrease significantly.
  
• Caritas is feeding 50% more people this year in its free lunch program than it did last year. At the same time, Caritas is experiencing a $700,000 decrease in their annual income. Caritas formerly offered 5,000 separate rent, utilities, food, clothing, medical, ID and transportation appointments. This year Caritas will only be able to offer rent and utility appointments. Only those clients receiving rent/utility assistance will be provided other supplementary services. This has resulted in appointments for families needing assistance to decrease from 5,000 last year to 1,700 this year.
  
• Austin Community Nursery Schools recently closed one of its schools, which provided affordable day care for children in low-income families.
  
• There are an estimated 3,977 homeless persons in Austin on any given day. A survey conducted in December by the U.S. Conference of Mayors found that requests for emergency shelter had increased an average of 13% over the last year.
  
• According to a January 12 article in the Austin American Statesman, apartment occupancy rates have fallen from 97.5% to 90.2%, the lowest level in more than 12 years. The average monthly rent for a one-bedroom apartment dropped from $691 in June to $655 in December. Although more than 8,000 apartment units are expected to be finished in 2002, some developers have delayed new multifamily housing projects.

Physical and Mental Health:

• 152,709 people in Travis County do not have Health insurance, approximately 23.6% of the total population. First Call for Help has experienced a 63% increase in the number referrals to CHIP/TexCare partnership, suggesting that the promotion of the program is working, or possibly that more middle class families are without health insurance for their children. However, the CHIP program is now preparing for a projected budget shortfall in August 2003, and staff is concerned that a cut-back in benefits will occur.
  
• The January 16th edition of the Austin American Statesman reported that area hospitals are operating at maximum capacity and are occasionally closing their emergency rooms to ambulances, and diverting to other hospitals.
  
• A recent informal survey of four providers of mental health services in Austin indicated they had experienced an increase in demand for services, which translated into larger waiting lists and longer delays in access to services. The increase in demand is attributed in part to the economic downturn and job loss. The providers surveyed primarily serve a population which does not meet the definition for serious mental illness. The survey revealed the following: 3 of 4 providers contacted experienced an increase in demand for services over the previous year; one provider experienced a 75% increase in services requested in November of this year compared to the same time last year; all of those experiencing an increased demand have longer waiting lists and waiting times to access services; half of providers contacted indicated the waiting times range from 2 to 8 weeks (in some cases, the waiting time has doubled over the previous year); and half of providers contacted have waiting lists ranging from 19 to 25 consumers.
• The City of Austin's health centers have seen a 20% increase from September to November of 2001, and have been operating at over 100% of capacity since September.
  
• According to the Austin/ Travis County Health and Human Services, Indigent Care Collaboration CHIP Outreach Coalition, Travis County has 20,081 children under age 19 who are uninsured.
  
• A poor economy has brought a record number of patients to Austin/Travis County health clinics. Many people laid off from their jobs have lost their insurance benefits, forcing them to seek public health care. The county health clinics are mandated to see all eligible patients. But People's Community Clinic, who does not have the same mandate, has been forced to turn away more than 2,000 people seeking assistance since May of this 2001.
  
• Based on the National Institutes of Mental Health estimates for the prevalence of mental health issues, an estimated 171,242 adults and children with mental health problems live in Travis County.
  
• A conservative estimate is that 25,000 youth and adults in our community need substance abuse treatment.
  
• Any Baby Can, a non-profit that provides services to children with serious illnesses, ran out of crisis funds in August of 2001 and is now deferring assistance unless the need is life-threatening. They are currently only able to provide financial assistance to clients who are participating in the case management program and then only if the need is related to the illness of their child.
  
• In the last nine months, Planned Parenthood has experienced an increased demand for services, especially medical services. Additionally, demand for contraception and family planning services for teens and young adults has increased. The majority of Planned Parenthood clients are adults between the ages of 20-29 and are Hispanic. While demand is up, their primary federal funding sources have remained "flat" and their operational costs, especially for medical supplies and testing, have continued to rise.
  
• Teen pregnancy rates overall have declined in Travis County, from 46.1 pregnancies per 1000 teenage women in 1996 to 36.6 in 2000. (Of the total population of teen females in Travis County (23,811), there were 871 pregnancies in 2000.) However, in 2000, Hispanic teens had a pregnancy rate of 64.3, African Americans had a rate of 47.0, and white teens had a rate of 14.9 per 1,000.

Substance Abuse:

• The recent closure of one of the Phoenix House treatment sites resulted in the loss of 14 residential beds for adolescent males in Travis County.

Public Safety:

• Of the Travis County total child population of 176,335 --1,653 were confirmed victims of abuse or neglect in FY 2000. In comparison to other large counties in Texas, Travis County has the highest rate of child abuse/neglect with 9.4 per 1,000.
  
• In a comparison of the first 9 months of 2000 and 2001, APD Victims Services saw a 25% increase in the child neglect cases referred to their office, an increase of 42 clients served from one year to the next.
  
• Despite an increase in the population, the number of referrals to Juvenile Probation decreased by 27% from 1997 to 2000, and remained relatively stable from 2000 to 2001.
  
• In FY 2001, there were 83 commitments to the Texas Youth Commission (TYC) from Travis County Juvenile Court. This represents a 37% decrease from the 132 commitments in FY 2000, and is the lowest number committed since fiscal year (FY) 1994. Only 3% of the juveniles physically referred to Travis County Juvenile Court in FY 01 (83 out of 2,592) were committed to TYC. The numbers in the chart to the right represent TYC commitments from Travis County over the last nine county fiscal years.
  
• According to a January 23 Austin American Statesman article, total indexed crimes were 23% higher in December of 2001 than they were in December of 2000. Auto theft (+50%), burglaries (+35%), robberies (+24%), and property thefts (+19%) all increased in Austin over the past year. At the same time, the number of arrests fell 6%. There were three murders in Austin in December of 2000 compared to five in December of 2001.
  
• During the last year, Austin has experienced an increase in robbery. However, at this time, the Austin Police Department (APD) does not expect to see changes in the crime index numbers as a result of the economic downturn and has not seen changes as a result of September 11th.
  
• In a comparison of the first 9 months of 2000 and 2001, calls to the domestic abuse and sexual assault hotline at SafePlace decreased. However, the battered women's shelter is cutting its budget by one million dollars and laying off staff - despite 99 children being on a waiting list for sexual abuse counseling.

Projections:

• Research shows that economic deprivation can increase the incidence of substance abuse, crime, adolescent pregnancy, school dropouts, poor health outcomes, etc. If current economic trends continue, it is possible that Travis County will see additional impacts on these and other indicators in the future. The CAN will continue monitoring changing conditions in our community in order to respond more quickly and effectively.
  

Top Of Page